> So with this background, I don't think we will ever see that HTML5 or any 
> later standards will replace Java at all.  HTML may take advantage of Java 
> Applets when the HTML + JavaScript is not powerful enough to solve your task.

To be fair, I can't really think of a Java application that couldn't be done by new elements in the "HTML5" specifications.  For instance, video conferencing, 3D applications, full screen, VOIP...

Probably the only thing I can think of that I've actually needed Java for recently was a cisco VPN software installer, which could probably have also been done in javascript+html.

It used to be that Web developers' hands were tied with regards to building web applications, but newer standards have created some really interesting possibilities :)

-Chris